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Trading Video: Risk Aversion Emerges as Dollar and USD/JPY Dive

Trading Video: Risk Aversion Emerges as Dollar and USD/JPY Dive

2016-04-29 23:25:00
John Kicklighter, Chief Currency Strategist
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Talking Points:

  • Japan may have been offline Friday, but that didn't douse the fire under USD/JPY
  • A reserved Fed and weak GDP pushed USDollar to 11-month lows, NFPs and Fed official speeches take up the reigns
  • SPX marked an early but noteworthy break to end last week, does full-scale risk aversion await us next week?

See the DailyFX Analysts' 2Q forecasts for the Dollar, Euro, Pound, Equities and Gold as well as our favorite 2016 trading opportunities in the DailyFX Trading Guides page.

The fires were stoked through the close this past week. Both the Dollar and Yen crosses extended their dive tallying remarkable lows and exceptional pace. This impressive move is unlikely to sustain itself, and so the focus turns to the fundamental accelerants we would expect to extend or divert these strong currents. For USD/JPY and the Yen crosses, the most prominent threat of volatility rests with policy officials. They have already set out their terms for intervention on behalf of the currency, and at the center of their plans was volatility. It so happens that this past week's USD/JPY drop was the largest since October 2008 - during the chaos that followed the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy. Meanwhile, the Dollar was undermined by the neutral Fed decision and weak 1Q GDP reading. April NFPs and a long list of Fed speakers should help provide further color. These themes accounted for, the most threatening/opportunity-laden circumstance may rest with risk trends. The S&P 500 only tentatively turned its multi-month bull trend, but the level of complacency in the market may find an explosive backdrop. We discuss these big picture themes and the shifting trade opportunity in this weekend Trading Video.

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