Talking Points:
- ECB rate decision ends in no change to policy and a struggling Euro
- Risk assets have eased back from their multi-month highs while the Dollar's recovery stalled at a key tech level
- Volatility readings are low heading into the weekend, but remain wary of exposure through liquidity lulls
Having trouble trading in the FX markets? This may be why.
Brought to key levels, the market has faltered rather than muster the strength to forge key breakouts and new trends. Be it the S&P 500's dogged return to record highs, the range top on the USDollar's nascent rebound or the EURUSD's proximity to its 15-month range resistance on the eve of ECB policy review; all would fall short of the critical escalation necessary to project the next leg. Restraint is not unexpected. Heading into the final trading hours of the week, neither theme nor catalyst (event risk) look particularly capable. These are still tactician-oriented markets where short-term traders are taking advantage of skepticism to facilitate large ranges and short-term breakouts. When the question of conviction and a critical shift in positioning is raised, the market's composition shows its limitations. Bigger winds next week may change our course, but the final session of this period will conform to the skewed participation of our short-sighted speculative market. We look at prevailing trading conditions and opportunities in today's Trading Video.
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