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New Five Month Highs for SPX, 10-Month Lows for USDollar

New Five Month Highs for SPX, 10-Month Lows for USDollar

2016-04-20 01:02:00
John Kicklighter, Chief Currency Strategist
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Talking Points:

  • A reserved rise in risk trends lifted US indexes to new highs, but bigger moves were recorded from DAX and others
  • The Dollar slipped on a market-wide basis, but pace and critical technical progress is a mixed bag in majors
  • Oil's gap and reversal finds bulls uneasily building into the buoyant bullish view - but how far to take it?

Having trouble trading in the FX markets? This may be why.

There are a number of fresh highs and lows being print in the markets, but that shouldn't be taken to mean momentum is on the rise. For many of the most impressive moves - in truncated headline form - being forged, there is a distinct level of struggle with projecting their moves. With US equities topping fresh highs for the year, the pace behind this climb is frustratingly reserved. There are those risk-oriented assets that are more tactically positioned (the DAX and NZDJPY among them), but it is clear conviction in theme and benchmark doesn't match the impressive headline. The same is true for the Dollar. While the Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index has extended a descending wedge pattern to lows last seen in June, the progress amongst the majors is uneven. EURUSD and USDJPY are not keeping pace with AUDUSD and USDCAD. The latter pairs are likely to show greater struggle for it. However, conditions for GBPUSD may better be capable of taking advantage of further (moderate) USD struggle. We discuss these themes and their opportunities in today's Trading Video.

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