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Anxiously Awaiting Critical Moves for SPX, Yen, Dollar and Oil

Anxiously Awaiting Critical Moves for SPX, Yen, Dollar and Oil

2016-04-15 22:52:00
John Kicklighter, Chief Currency Strategist
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Talking Points:

  • S&P 500 pushes to speculative extremes, conviction will either fuel further risk taking or its absence break it
  • Monetary policy an active theme, but only the ECB's rate decision will follow a set decorum for market impact
  • An OPEC and key non-OPEC production meeting in Doha holds the attention of more than just the oil trader

See how retail traders are positioning in the majors using the FXCM SSI readings on DailyFX's sentiment page.

The convergence of pressure across a range of markets should make investors wary. While risk orientation can align many assets, there are a variety of circumstances pushing separate markets to critical levels and tension. General conditions as they are can readily transmit shock and volatility via sentiment channels, which makes for a myriad of potential catalysts that can trigger systemic moves that reach much further than their immediate influence would suggest. Speculative appetite itself always sits at the top of the list, but complacency has held fast with the S&P 500 leading equity indexes to noteworthy resistance under limited conviction. The extremes in monetary policy and its fading influence against a crucial role of founding current standings will turn speculation back on the Fed, ECB and BoJ. The chances of the FOMC hiking in the near future will heat up in advance of the April 27 rate decision which contrasts to the ECB's meeting which will carry the stigma of a spent effort. Then there is the anxiety surrounding the BoJ and its overt threats of intervention. Another key theme is oil, whose rebound this past two months may be made or broken by key producers' meeting this weekend. We discuss these themes along with the risks and trade opportunities they may present in this weekend Trading Video.

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