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China GDP and IMF Warnings Set to Revive FX Volatility, Trends

China GDP and IMF Warnings Set to Revive FX Volatility, Trends

2016-04-09 02:53:00
John Kicklighter, Chief Currency Strategist

Talking Points:

  • Where this past week was a struggle to develop fundamental trends, the period ahead may encourage them to flourish
  • Top event risk on the docket ahead includes Chinese 1Q GDP, the start of US Q1 earnings and US inflation figures
  • Both underlying risk trends and relative monetary policy will be presented with capable fodder to fuel potential trend

See the DailyFX Analysts' 2Q forecasts for the Dollar, Euro, Pound, Equities and Gold as well as our favorite 2016 trading opportunities in the DailyFX Trading Guides page.

Market developments this past week promise (or threatened depending on your side of the market) both risk and Dollar trends this past week. Both fell short. Next week, however, will be less encumbered. Ahead, we are looking at scheduled event risk that hits upon key themes with influence over both volatility and potential trend development. With the S&P 500 carving out a head-and-shoulders pattern, speculative sentiment watchers will be on constant alert for a systemic decline in risk positioning. For the Yen crosses, this would be a clear opportunity if it weren't also for the threat of Japanese intervention aiming to halt appreciation in the local currency. Event risk to keep tabs on for this systemic theme includes high-profile risk like the 1Q Chinese GDP, the start of the Q1 US corporate earnings season and the IMF's update on global growth forecasts. On the monetary policy front, the US docket is particularly stocked with key event risk. Inflation statistics will amplify the Fed's supposed favored wage measure in the University of Michigan confidence report to shape rate expectations. We discuss the expected change in market conditions between last week and the one ahead as well as the trade opportunities it presents in this weekend Trading Video.

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