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FOMC Minutes Excite Markets But Offer No Clear Dollar, SPX Move

FOMC Minutes Excite Markets But Offer No Clear Dollar, SPX Move

2016-04-07 02:27:00
John Kicklighter, Chief Currency Strategist
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Talking Points:

  • Market conditions are not conducive to developing trends and mounting major breakouts
  • The FOMC minutes offered remarks for both hawks and doves to trumpet, but the outcome is decided in market context
  • An rebound from the S&P 500 shows the difficulty with trying to mount a risk move - even with tech levels giving

Having trouble trading in the FX markets? This may be why.

There is no shortage of volatility with the right motivator, but the markets are still struggling with trend this week. This past session, the Dollar-based majors and US equities (among other risk assets) were shaken up by the FOMC minutes. The transcript of the Fed's meeting over March 15-16 carried far less fundamental heft than the forecasts and Chairwoman press conference that immediately followed the decision. We've already seen a dovish shift after the rate forecast was halved and Janet Yellen voiced concern about global conditions last week. Yet, that didn't stop both hawks and dovish from pointing to certain remarks. Debate over whether April should even be considered does not speak to a dovish lean considering the market doesn't fully price a hike until mid-2017. In the last 48 hours this week, there are calendar highlights and always the chance for headlines that shake the global markets; but there is little that promises to offer focus and conviction. With these limitations in mind; we consider the combination of conditions, fundamentals and technicals for trades in today's Trading Video.

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