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Is USD Dead in the Water and What Happens When Stocks Stall?

Is USD Dead in the Water and What Happens When Stocks Stall?

2016-04-02 00:27:00
John Kicklighter, Chief Currency Strategist
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Talking Points:

  • March NFPs data beat and wage growth accelerated but the Dollar remained Yellen-cowed
  • Risk trends are showing greater divergence with commodities and Nikkei 225 dropping, reflecting a loss of conviction
  • The IMF will offer its global growth forecast and Four Fed Chairs will speak, but market conditions will dominate

See the DailyFX Analysts' 2Q forecasts for the Dollar, Euro, Pound, Equities and Gold as well as our favorite 2016 trading opportunities in the DailyFX Trading Guides page.

What kind of markets are we heading into next week? Trend potential in risk trends is evidently flagging. That is not to mean that we are seeing a risk appetite move readying for a disruptive swing into fear, but rather that speculative motivation is flagging altogether. With volatility measures dropping across the financial world, it will be difficult to transmit the shocks that scheduled event risk would otherwise exact. Meanwhile, the relative monetary policy balance will have event risk, but little of the extremely high profile docket items of the past weeks. After the good NFPs data from this past week were disarmed by Fed Chairwoman Yellen's cautious tone, it remains to be seen what will rouse a definitive Greenback move. However, we do have a meeting of current and past Fed Chairs next week. That should be interesting. We look at scheduled event risk, discuss trading conditions and look at outliers in this weekend Trading Video.

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