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NFPs Likely to Motivate More Volatility, Trend in Stocks than Dollar

NFPs Likely to Motivate More Volatility, Trend in Stocks than Dollar

2016-04-01 02:05:00
John Kicklighter, Chief Currency Strategist
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Talking Points:

  • The March Payrolls report offers a spark of key event risk to close out this volatile trading week
  • Circumstance and Yellen comments from earlier this week may distort and curb the market's reaction to the jobs data
  • Risk trends are quickly building more market potential over the 'relative monetary policy' fundamental theme

Having trouble trading in the FX markets? This may be why.

After a strong risk move and further Dollar slide this past week, we are looking at another likely surge of volatility to close out the week. US NFPs for March are due before the US open, and the series' history of volatility has traders on edge. Market conditions are already primed for activity and the US labor data has a well-documented history of causing waves and nausea for traders. However, this round of data may not be the sure catalyst that it has played in year's past. For the Dollar, a dovish scenario may cater to Yellen's caution; but it is a heavy trend of improvement to fight. On the hawkish side, the Chairwoman downplayed the one factor that is still lacking for a drive towards normalization. Positioning in risky assets on the other hand may not be so immune. We consider this last fundamental trigger to an active but undecided week in today's Trading Video.

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