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USD Tumble Already Running Out of Yellen Steam, Risk Run Uneven

USD Tumble Already Running Out of Yellen Steam, Risk Run Uneven

2016-03-31 04:02:00
John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist
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Talking Points:

  • The Dollar extended its Yellen-triggered decline this past session, but progress floundered outside tactical moves
  • A rebound or extended dive from the Greenback now rests with Dudley, NFPs and risk trends
  • Already in a bull trend, the progress of risk appetite trends is decisively lacking

Having trouble trading in the FX markets? This may be why.

It seems even Fed Chair Janet Yellen can't sustain steady Dollar bear and risk appetite bull trends. Though her speech on Tuesday sparked volatility and an initial wave of selling for USD and a general bid for risk-oriented assets, conviction behind the move petered out rather quickly. For the Greenback, there was still a general slide that conforms to the recent slip in rate expectations; but progress was made on more tactical circumstances - such as with the technical break from NZDUSD or acceleration for existing USDCAD and AUDUSD trends. For broader speculative sentiment, the S&P 500 and Dow crowded headlines with 2016 highs; but other risk plays were struggling, stalled or started to retreat. Ahead, we will see headlines on Fed members weighing in on financial crises; Chinese economic activity and US NFPs. This event risk is likely to add to volatility and offers little certainty for clear trend. We discuss conditions and event risk in today's Trading Video.

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