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Yellen Sends USD Tumbling but Trend, Risk Impact Not Preordained

Yellen Sends USD Tumbling but Trend, Risk Impact Not Preordained

2016-03-30 01:41:00
John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist

Talking Points:

  • The Dollar was Tuesday's biggest mover with Yellen's speech leading to a sharp currency drop across the board
  • While USD and SPX were quick to react to a dovish interpretation, neither is going to find a trend easy to sustain
  • I look at my medium-term Dollar candidates (GBPUSD, USDCAD, EURUSD) and those more tactical potential (NZDUSD)

See how retail traders are positioning in the majors using the FXCM SSI readings on DailyFX's sentiment page.

The Dollar suffered a bearish hit this past session comparable to the one it suffered after the Fed downgraded its rate forecast. The source of the currency's pain was Chairwoman Janet Yellen's speech on her economic and monetary policy outlook. There was a tangible dovishness to her views and remarks that seemed more prominent given a relative hawkishness from her peers this past week. Yellen may have very well set a policy cue that trouble for China would lead to easing from the US central bank. However, that dovish back door may not provide as much leverage for developing trends as it has in the past. A crisis for a little more time or QE from the Fed doesn't seem deal it once was - especially given the tepid market response to the ECB's and BoJ's blatant efforts. We discuss the options for the Dollar as market interpretation evolves, risk trends despite accommodative promises across the board and the Pound's measure of separation from these overbearing themes in today's Trading video.

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