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Beware Risk Trends after ECB Defines Ends of Monetary Policy

Beware Risk Trends after ECB Defines Ends of Monetary Policy

2016-03-11 01:22:00
John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist

Talking Points:

  • The ECB offered a full press on monetary policy: rate cut, negative deposit rate, more QE, a move into corporate debt
  • A Euro rally and DAX slump paint unusual outcomes on more stimulus, but this isn't isolated or new
  • With monetary policy's influence over the markets changing, traders should mind market-wide investor sentiment

See how retail traders are positioning in the majors on DailyFX or bring the figures to your charts using the FXCM SSI snapshot.

The ECB attempted to shock and awe the markets. It didn't work particularly well. With the European Central Bank lifting the bar on the extremes of accommodative policy, we witnessed an immediate market reaction that contradicts what many have come to expect. Comparative yield advantage, front-running central banks and risk appetite born of moral hazard have lost their footing in the financial system. This holds deep implications for more than just the Euro's next leg. If sentiment can no longer be leveraged higher by expectations of more external support, are conditions stable enough for markets to go it alone? Where is their an excess of premium or a dearth of volatility that could be back-filled? What markets are exposed to the limitations of monetary policy and which can avoid this fundamental debate? And, what is in store for the Euro? We discuss this in today's Trading Video.

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