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Dollar and Stocks Hold Tech Boundaries, Rate Decisions Ahead

Dollar and Stocks Hold Tech Boundaries, Rate Decisions Ahead

John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist

Talking Points:

  • USDollar held the floor on its prominent rising trend channel, but conviction is held in check by an unbalance docket
  • Risk appetite marked a notable slip with a 'range' sentiment taking over rather than a full collapse
  • The ECB rate decision ahead is rousing Euro traders, but before that event we have the RBNZ and BoC meetings

See how retail traders are positioning in the Dollar and on the SPX500 on DailyFX or bring the figures to your charts using the FXCM SSI snapshot.

When fundamentals are light or inconclusive, technicals tend to exert greater influence on market development. With the Dollar moving on key support and equity indexes hitting resistance, a lack of fuel behind both themes saw a tentative rejection of their respective boundaries. While that makes setups like the EURUSD's pullback from its 200-day moving average, the S&P 500 retreat from 2,000 and the USDCAD bounce from its trendline appear more attractive; conviction - momentum to the trader - behind this nascent move is just as dubious as continuation of the previous trend. The focus moving forward is how much run a purely sentiment-derived move can build with important event risk still ahead? Aside from this vague assessment, we will head into monetary policy-centered event risk. The RBNZ and BoC rate decisions are dead ahead, but it is the former that carries the greater potential for surprise and technical standings for response. That said, the market's real interest for the week remains with the ECB decision on Thursday. We look at the conflict of fundamentals and technicals in today's Trading Video.

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