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Dollar Faces Crucial Bearish Test, ECB and China Event Risk

Dollar Faces Crucial Bearish Test, ECB and China Event Risk

2016-03-05 00:43:00
John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist
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Talking Points:

• A strong NFPs and slip from wage growth led the USDollar to drop back to the floor of critical support

• China will be a lasting fundamental threat through the coming week with the NPC and a round of scheduled data

• The top, specific piece of event risk to keep track of this week is the ECB rate decision given stimulus warnings

See the DailyFX Analysts' 1Q forecasts for the Dollar, Euro, Pound, Equities and Gold as well as our favorite 2016 trading opportunities in the DailyFX Trading Guides page.

The NFPs this past Friday capped off a quick slide for the US Dollar through the past week. Now, the Greenback finds itself stationed at the crossroads of a dense round of support and facing a crisis of confidence in its bullish convictions. With the crucial FOMC rate decision (March 16) another week away, a decisive catalyst cannot be counted on to decide this benchmark's next move. Bigger picture themes, surrounding event risk and general sentiment will dictate the Dollar's bearings for the time being. For 'risk trends', the sparks are a little more substantial and readily available. China will be a serious contender for global investors' attention. The National Peoples' Congress over the coming week will offer a vague compliment to specific catalysts including trade, foreign reserves and financing data. Top event risk ahead is the European Central Bank's rate decision which has been built up by remarks that suggest the policy authority is heading for another escalation of accommodation. We look at the big technical and fundamental threats ahead.

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