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Dollar Tumbles, Aussie Dollar Rallies, Gold and Oil Face Breaks

Dollar Tumbles, Aussie Dollar Rallies, Gold and Oil Face Breaks

John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist

Talking Points:

• The Dollar was one of the worst performing majors Wednesday, but trend will be hampered by NFP expectations

AUDUSD broke resistance and a 200-day SMA, but follow through from the Aussie Dollar may be in short supply

• Commodities - particular oil and gold prices - look staged for a technical break

See how retail traders are positioning in AUDUSD after the breakout on DailyFX or bring the figures to your charts using the FXCM SSI snapshot.

The Dollar-based majors were rocking and rolling this past session, and a few pairs like AUDUSD and GBPUSD look as if they triggered serious technical moves. However, follow through on the AUDUSD breakout and GBPUSD reversal - much less the less remarkable moves for other pairs - will be tripped up by a menacing NFPs scheduled for release on Friday. That potential monetary policy catalyst can significantly change the bearing and activity level of hte market, which will override the lure of immediate technical patterns. Meanwhile, the Australian data dump has ramped the AUD to serious rallies, but there is little fuel left to keep the run going if speculative momentum doesn't take over. In risk trends, equities are buoyant but not as impressive as emerging markets. Commodities like gold and oil are facing breakout risk, but drive will once again lack for fundamentals. We look at the conflict between some good setups and countervailing conditions in today's Trading Video.

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