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How Long Does Risk Rebound Lift Stock, Brexit Pain Pummel Pound?

How Long Does Risk Rebound Lift Stock, Brexit Pain Pummel Pound?

2016-02-25 03:10:00
John Kicklighter, Chief Currency Strategist
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Talking Points:

• A rebound in the second half of the US session was led by the sharp reversal in S&P 500 and other risk benchmarks

• The Dollar shrugged off a service sector PMI drop to extend its rally with Fed skepticism easing in rates markets

• Brexit fears continue to ravage the Pound crosses, but how much premium is there left to destroy for this currency?

See the DailyFX Analysts' 1Q forecasts for the Dollar, Euro, Pound, Equities and Gold as well as our favorite 2016 trading opportunities in the DailyFX Trading Guides page.

EURUSD is the lightening rod for the most prominent fundamental themes influencing the market's today, but that doesn't mean it is assured volatility and direction. As the pair consolidates into key technical levels on the back of lower volume figures, we find these driving forces may be temporarily offsetting each other. Risk trends has proven a volatile market catalyst for the likes of global equities and Yen crosses while the EURUSD responds by carry unwinding a long-Dollar Fed view that repatriates to the cheap funding position from the Euro. Meanwhile, the dramatic disparity in monetary policy bearings between Fed and ECB saw representatives of both institutions leveraging the divergence. Meanwhile, the Pound's extended tumble continues to unnerve EU and Eurozone stability views. Where each them is leveraging major volatility and trends for assets with singular exposure, the EURUSD looks strangely sanguine despite its central position. We discuss these various themes and the different markets' responses in today's Trading Video.

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