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Risk Trends Turned Over to Traders, Fed Path Concerns the Dollar

Risk Trends Turned Over to Traders, Fed Path Concerns the Dollar

2016-02-20 02:50:00
John Kicklighter, Chief Currency Strategist
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Talking Points:

• The strong risk swell in equities and other markets stalled last week, leaving short-term traders in control

• A G-20 meeting, US inflation figures and growth benchmarks in PMIs will top the coming week's docket

USdollar's mature channel will come under increased pressure as a decision to hike or hold approaches for Fed

See the DailyFX Analysts' 1Q forecasts for the Dollar, Euro, Pound, Equities and Gold as well as our favorite 2016 trading opportunities in the DailyFX Trading Guides page.

An attempt at reigniting risk trends faltered this past week. While the specter of a renewed deleveraging drive is tangible, a catalyst is likely necessary to mount the next raid on the speculative entrenched. In the meantime, the market is open to the volatile influence of the short-term, tacticians. For sparks that can reignite activity and perhaps trend, the week ahead carries another round of GDP proxies (PMIs) and US inflation figures (for shaping Fed timing) to work with. Top listing is the Thursday-Friday G-20 meeting. These are opportunities to discuss the biggest global concerns in a constructive and - most importantly - collaborative manner. China, emerging markets, financial liquidity and global growth will no doubt be topics that are covered - and in turn draw the attention of market participants. Special attention should again be cast to the Dollar's increasingly mature trend as time winds down to a definitive view of the Fed's trajectory. We discuss the Greenback, risk trends, commodities and the Pound in this weekend Trading Video.

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