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Trading Video: Rebound in Dollar Cools, Equities Continue, EM Intensifies

Trading Video: Rebound in Dollar Cools, Equities Continue, EM Intensifies

2016-02-18 03:26:00
John Kicklighter, Chief Currency Strategist
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Talking Points:

• The minutes of the FOMC's January meeting reinforced a fading hawkish bias, but the Dollar warded off collapse

• Stocks as a 'risk appetite' proxy has surged for a fourth session though fundamental drive increasingly thin

• Emerging market currencies ramp volatility with Ruble rallying on oil bounce, Peso surging after intervention

See the DailyFX Analysts' 1Q forecasts for the Dollar, Euro, Pound, Equities and Gold as well as our favorite 2016 trading opportunities in the DailyFX Trading Guides page.

The rebound in markets linked to investor sentiment is starting to diverge. Equities continued to rise with little check to momentum. However, the lift behind these assets looks increasingly suspect with the most distinctly QE-leveraged markets lagging their more austere counterparts. For the Dollar, the carry drive tempered with the FOMC minutes further clouding the central bank's ambitious 2016 forecast for hikes - though still far from the depth of skepticism in swaps pricing. Commodities meanwhile are attempting another rebound effort with oil facing resistance amid production discussions. From risk and commodities, volatility in emerging markets (and their currencies) is proving more prominent than conviction. We look at the level of strength behind this prevailing theme along with remarkable concentrated moves from the Pound, Mexican Peso and few other standouts in today's Trading Video.

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