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Does Dollar Trend Channel Risk Reflect Fundamental Trend Threat?

Does Dollar Trend Channel Risk Reflect Fundamental Trend Threat?

John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist

Talking Points:

• After its sharp decline this week, the Dollar is at risk of slipping breaking key support - including the 200DMA

• The Greenback has held back the tide of the market's rate forecast, but NFPs may crack the long-term drive

• A dovish BoE report surprises few with a limited Pound impact, Oil headlines seem to trump tangible data

See the DailyFX Analysts' 1Q forecasts for the Dollar, Euro, Pound, Equities and Gold as well as our favorite 2016 trading opportunities in the DailyFX Trading Guides page.

Having experienced extraordinary volatility recently, traders eagerly await the settlement on trends. At the forefront heading into the final 24 hour trading session of the week is the US Dollar. The benchmark currency has dropped sharply and now stands just above an important channel support and the 200-day moving average. Both of these technical markers carry the weight of a multi-month (arguably multi-year) bull trend. Though this retreat has been fueled by a prominent market topic - the divergence between the market's and Fed's rate forecasts - the context doesn't automatically provide the momentum for a decisive change in tack. But perhaps the NFPs can shift the balance. Elsewhere, the Pound's building bear trend has met a lackluster driver for follow through in the form of the BoE Quarterly Inflation report. Oil has attempted a few times to break the bear's hold, but the drivers for bulls have proven flimsy. And, then there is the general course of risk which has held off its lowest from last month. We discuss the next moves, key trends and big catalysts in today's Trading Video.

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