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Video: BoJ Effect Fades for Yen, Risk Wobbles, Inflation Fails USD

Video: BoJ Effect Fades for Yen, Risk Wobbles, Inflation Fails USD

2016-02-02 03:16:00
John Kicklighter, Chief Currency Strategist
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Talking Points:

• After taking the weekend to ponder its implications, Yen crosses find no follow through on BoJ's negative rate

• The Fed's favored inflation figure - PCE - shows limited pressure for a definitive March FOMC outcome

• Risk trends lose motivation quickly as complacency once again entrenches until next shock unseats markets

See how retail traders are positioning in the majors in your charts using the FXCM SSI snapshot.

Monetary policy and speculation are an indelible link for global financial markets. This past session was a test to see how much the former could motivate the latter. In past years, an accommodative move by one of the world's largest central banks would have triggered now just a reaction from its own currency, it could drive risk trends on a substantial move. Whether the effort just fell short or the markets are losing confidence in central bank protection, the BoJ's move to negative rates wouldn't carry through the weekend. If this driver is spent, speculative interests expecting a thunderous Yen move may exit quickly. For risk trends, a more capable catalyst is being sought. Meanwhile, the Dollar continues to carve out mature ranges amongst the majors with deceptive motivations for resolution. Compares to the USD-based majors, the Pound crosses present promising and definitive sparks. We evaluate the market and its trade potential in today's Trading Video.

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