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Look at Fed Impact on Trend Not Volatility, UK GDP Targets Pound

Look at Fed Impact on Trend Not Volatility, UK GDP Targets Pound

2016-01-28 02:31:00
John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist
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Talking Points:

• The Fed doesn't turn off its 100bp-in-2016 forecast, but leaves the door open to China influence

• UK GDP top event in the upcoming session and the scenario analysis paints an asymmetrical picture for Pound impact

• US GDP Friday is a distraction on the horizon for Dollar and risk trends

See how retail traders are positioning in the majors in your charts using the FXCM SSI snapshot.

If your top concern for the FOMC rate decision Wednesday was an immediate flush of volatility, the event was disappointing. However, if you're focus was long-term market conditions and trends; the monetary policy statement that accompanied the 'no change' call on rates distinctively shapes expectations. Given the path set by the December forecasts, the Fed will either have to hike next meeting or pullback from its hawkish push. And, that means data will carry more market weight between now and then. In the meantime, global investors are growing more circumspect of their exposure to increasingly-fragile sentiment, and scheduled event risk ahead looks to generate friction for other key currencies. The most concentrated event in the upcoming session is the UK GDP release. The data will be interpreted through a monetary policy lens with uneven impact. Between technicals and fundamentals, GBPCAD and GBPNZD offer very provocative setups. We discuss this and more in today's Trading Video.

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