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Dollar Resetting for Fed, NZD Another Unexpected Rate Decision Mover

Dollar Resetting for Fed, NZD Another Unexpected Rate Decision Mover

2015-12-10 02:44:00
John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist
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Talking Points:

• The RBNZ cut rates, and yet the New Zealand Dollar rallied on the news as future easing pressures cooled

• A string of volatile and unexpected market responses to monetary policy further amplifies the FOMC risk

• Both equities and the Dollar have extended their respective declines, how much run is there to these moves?

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We are now less than one week away from the FOMC rate decision - a crucial fundamental event risk to the global financial system made all the more important due to its timing. We are in the twilight of the year with market depth expected to thin as further bouts of volatility look disturbingly likely. The liquidity risk is palpable. And, the potential relief that we may have found in an expected quiet response to an in-line Fed decision has further diminished thanks to a surprise reaction from the Kiwi after the RBNZ rate cut. Building on the Euro's contradictory move to the ECB QE upgrade last week, market participants are increasingly uncertain of their evaluations for these critical fundamental assessments and positioning. With the BoE and SNB decisions ahead, we will see another monetary policy weigh in before we are forced to focus on the volatility threat that the Fed poses. We look at key event risk, the distortions in underlying themes and the prevailing market conditions in this final Trading Video of the year.

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