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Dollar and Equity Conviction to Smolder Until FOMC, Kiwi a Highlight

Dollar and Equity Conviction to Smolder Until FOMC, Kiwi a Highlight

2015-12-05 01:09:00
John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist
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Talking Points:

• The combined impact of the ECB rate decision and US NFPs disarmed trend potential and set the stage for next week

• While there is key event risk ahead, the trend-worthy drive may not arise again until the Fed call on Dec 16

• Volatility and range are the order of the week ahead; and Kiwi crosses may outshine Dollar, Euro or Yen

See how retail traders are positioning in the majors in your charts using the FXCM SSI snapshot.

The volatility through the opening week of December has already run afoul of expectations set through seasonality. A dramatic swing from EUR/USD and sharp moves from other key assets signal the precarious mix of liquidity, speculative exposure and important fundamental themes we are dealing with. Though the markets will remain on mercurial and prone to unexpected jolts from event risk or 'animal spirits', trend development will be difficult to sustain. Many of the trend leaders have moved back from key range boundaries following this past week's tumultuous response to the ECB decision and NFPs. To return to those speculative borders and then surpass them would be a tall order. With the FOMC rate decision scheduled for December 16 - the Wednesday after next - anticipation will act as an anchor against volatility. That, however, doesn't mean trade opportunity has dried up. We instead have to adjust our approach. Dollar and Euro runs should be projected to reasonable distance, Yen crosses and equities will follow cumulative sentiment, while high profile event risk and technical levels may provide for less heavily speculated themes (like the Kiwi's response to the RBNZ decision). We discuss market conditions and setups in this weekend Trading Video.

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