Talking Points:
• The US Dollar stumbled this past session, leading traders to look for blood in the water as key event risk starts
• A dense round of Aussie event risk has motivated a AUD bullish break, but follow through will be a challenge
• Euro anticipation is palpable, but the CAD may be the more immediate mover on key data and heavy volume
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The EUR/USD's advance this past session says it all. Despite serious event risk ahead, the speculative ranks are baiting the water with counter trend moves. These jerks in establish moves draw the eye, but they should also draw our doubt. Can the Euro mount a meaningful recovery ahead of an ECB rate decision that is expected to result in more monetary policy accommodation? Is the Dollar going to tumble before a deep round of Fed commentary (the last wave before the pre-FOMC blackout) and Friday NFPs offers motivation? These markets are predisposed to volatility, but momentum and trend still require a focus that is unlikely without a clear fundamental drive. This conflict of volatility and conviction can shape trade potential. We discuss the market's bearings amid a build up in scheduled event risk in today's Trading Video.
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