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Trading Video: EURUSD Closing in On 1.05, But A Move Below This Week?

Trading Video: EURUSD Closing in On 1.05, But A Move Below This Week?

John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist

Talking Points:

• The Dollar was Monday's top performing major with gains measured against its top counterparts

• Liquidity is set to drain into Thursday's US holiday, so new USDollar 12-year highs or EURUSD lows is a stretch

• Front-loaded data starts to intensify today, but expectations should be shaped around market conditions

See volume behind the majors to establish building or fading conviction using the free FXCM Real Volume and Transactions indicators.

I abide by three types of market analysis: technical, fundamentals and market conditions. This week, market conditions are of primary importance. That is because liquidity will be severely curtained through the second half of the week. Though the Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday is primarily a US holiday, it is an important lubricant for risk appetite throughout the global markets. Historical trends that show curbed turnover and stalled trends will lead many to believe that the seasonal effect will repeat itself and dampen the other key sessions unless there is a significant event risk that has the scope to tap big picture themes like general risk trends. This black hole of activity and volume will be crucial to adjust for. Expectations for the S&P 500 to surge to record highs or tip into a steep reversal and the USDollar to either further its 12-year highs or collapse are unrealistic. Either shorter duration, much longer term or non-conforming trades (outside the influence of 'risk' or the Dollar) are better pursuits. We look at the market conditions we are dealing with this week in today's Trading Video.

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.