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Stocks Close Strong, USD Holds Bull Trend, Liquidity Watch Ahead

Stocks Close Strong, USD Holds Bull Trend, Liquidity Watch Ahead

2015-11-21 01:56:00
John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist
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Talking Points:

• US and global equities closed out a strong week, cheering investors hoping for the Santa Claus rally to take

• Seasonal trading conditions will see the first serious liquidity drain with the US's Thanksgiving holiday on tap

• The Dollar steadied after its slip to keep its general bullish bearing intact

See how retail traders are positioning in the majors.

Conditions seem ideal for a seasonal, bullish close to the year. But traders should remain vigilant and mindful of the risk they are taking on. Following the swell from shares markets this past week - running an increasingly divergent path to other 'risk' assets - confidence and complacency will likely ride high. Yet, the big picture risks to the system remain. Volatility triggered by systemic fear can create financial trouble when liquidity is drained. We have a structurally weak liquidity condition, and the upcoming week will add the seasonal US Thanksgiving holiday drain. Scheduled event risk is light for the week ahead, but it is not difficult to stir waters this shallow. The Fed's favored inflation figure (PCE deflator) is due, but following weeks brings NFPs and the crucial December 16 Fed decision. Meanwhile, open-ended risks in China, emerging markets, global growth and liquidity fears hang over us without key dates to track. We discuss market and trading conditions in the week ahead in this weekend Trading Video.

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