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  • RT @FxWestwater: Asia AM Brief: Australian Dollar Forecast: $AUDUSD May Move on #RBA, Covid, China, US NFPs Link:…
  • RBA's Lowe: Now plausible scenarios for rate-hike in 3-year horizon, vaccine program gives a pathway out this year. Pickup in inflation, wages likely to be gradual -BBG
  • RBA's Lowe: Prepared to act in response to further bad news on health, bounce-back likely to start well before end of year -BBG
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  • RBA's Lowe: Some increase in unemployment expected over months ahead, significant parts of economy still on positive trajectory -BBG
  • RBA Governor Philip Lowe: Outbreaks mean GDP likely to decline in September quarter, doesn't expect to raise cash rate before 2024 -BBG #AUD #RBA
  • 🇯🇵 Household Spending YoY (JUN) Actual: -5.1% Expected: 0.1% Previous: 11.6%
  • The Japanese Yen could rise against the US Dollar and Australian Dollar as retail investors increase upside exposure in USD/JPY and AUD/JPY. What are key technical levels to watch? Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:
  • Heads Up:🇯🇵 Household Spending YoY (JUN) due at 23:30 GMT (15min) Expected: 0.1% Previous: 11.6%
  • Heads Up:🇦🇺 RBA Gov Lowe Speech due at 23:00 GMT (15min)
FX Traders Weigh Whether Dollar Drop a Slip or Trend Change

FX Traders Weigh Whether Dollar Drop a Slip or Trend Change

John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist

Talking Points:

• The Dollar dove back below the same critical technical level that kept back bulls until the October NFPs

• From the fundamental backdrop, the Greenback stumble comes as Fed Funds boost lift December hike chances to 72%

• Event risk levels out into week's end; so setups on high profile themes (mon pol, risk) should require triggers

See how retail traders are positioning in the majors in your charts using the FXCM SSI snapshot.

Both the risk appetite-fueled run of US equities and the drive to 12-year highs for the USDollar flagged this past session. Where the S&P 500 stalled, the currency tumbled. This is more likely the reflection of short-term speculation succumbing to tempered momentum rather than a definitive change in bias. Relative monetary policy is still very much a major FX driver, and the Dollar is widening its advantage - with Lacker and Fischer comments, the Fed Funds futures probability of a December hike advanced from 68% to 72%. As for the risk appetite that the US stock index represents, the preceding run was itself dubious against a backdrop of divergent bearings across various asset types. Heading into the end of the week, decisions to trade with or against these new developments should be weighed against time and liquidity. We discuss this in more detail in today's Trading Video.


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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.