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Dollar Trend Still Floundering, Linking Event Risk to Volatility Ahead

Dollar Trend Still Floundering, Linking Event Risk to Volatility Ahead

John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist

Talking Points:

• The incredible break made by Dollar bulls this past Friday is still struggling to leverage momentum

• A tempting risk slip has also failed to mobilize proactive bears despite the technical and fundamental backing

• Key event risk is ahead, but market conditions may limit its impact

See how retail traders are positioning in the majors in your charts using the FXCM SSI snapshot.

Neither the Dollar nor risk trends have been able to follow key technical breaks with tangible follow through. When the USDollar cleared 12-year highs and the S&P 500 squeezed a rising wedge into a bearish break, the speculative glove was thrown. These were moves that further have good fundamental traction - building speculation of a near-term Fed hike and revived 'global headwinds'. Yet, conviction has failed to materialize behind the initial shift. The quick stall certainly deflates potential, but it doesn't alter the underlying conditions. What is lacking is speculative drive which may be further disrupted by holiday trading conditions in the upcoming US session. Meanwhile, underlying themes and scheduled event risk are still ahead. We look at the volatile mix of technicals, fundamentals and market conditions in today's Trading Video.

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