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Volatility Risk Shifts from Emerging Markets Growth to Fed Timing

Volatility Risk Shifts from Emerging Markets Growth to Fed Timing

2015-10-02 00:57:00
Research, Research Team
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Talking Points:

• Top event risk the past 24 hours was the growth update from Emerging Market (BRICS) PMIs

• Through Friday, the focus will shift to Fed timing as September NFPs shape employment and inflation forecasts

USDollar and equities ranges will be tough to clear Friday while USDJPY, GBPUSD and AUDNZD are more active

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A second day of recovery for equities and risk-aligned markets this past session further cools the drive for trend. Emerging Markets - China in particular - threatened to revive global financial turbulence with a round of key growth figures. The September manufacturing PMI figures for the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) represent a targeted view of growth from a group of economies that have shouldered a considerable responsibility for the global recovery since the Great Financial Crisis. Though most readings were contractionary, the data didn't generate short-term surprise with large deviations from forecasts. Ahead, we shift focus to another key market driver in these generally uncertain times: Fed and global monetary policy. NFPs may be the headline, but the crux of Friday's US labor data will be wage figures. As we head into the final 24 hour session of the trading week, vigilance for volatility needs to be weighed against the outlook for trend development. We discuss key fundamental themes, exposed markets and more active opportunities in today's Trading Video.

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