Trading Video: The End of Complacency and the Rise of Volatility
• A Fed policy hold doesn't inspire the same appetite for risk that it has in years past
• The prevalence of 'risks' and recognition of low returns looks to mark a permanent shift in market sentiment
• Equities, the Dollar and Yen crosses stand at the frontier of a risk shift, but there are less extreme options
See volume behind the majors during the GDP and FOMC rate decision to gauge your trading approach using the free FXCM Real Volume and Transactions indicators.
The old order of central bank accommodation spurring risk taking is running out of steam. Following the Federal Reserve's decision to keep monetary policy at its accommodative extreme - near-zero rates and an exceptional balance sheet of stimulus - Dollar and capital markets marked an unusual reversal. The S&P 500 quickly retraced its gains and pitched into a clear decline through Friday. Meanwhile, the delay of the first FOMC hike marked an even shorter half-life decline for the Greenback as its relative hawkish standing and haven status were given greater prominence. The bias for risk taking is changing, and the potential/risk is exceptional. With the norm of September representing the worst month in performance with a sharp rise in volatility and volume, we are matching seasonal shift to structural change. What is growing riskier and what offers greater appeal? We discuss that in this weekend Trading Video.
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