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Trading Video: Dollar Rate View Cools, Risk and Aussie Dollar Look to Carry Banner

Trading Video: Dollar Rate View Cools, Risk and Aussie Dollar Look to Carry Banner

2015-08-04 01:01:00
John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist
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Talking Points:

• Dollar traders opened on rate speculation with the Fed's favored PCE, but the data didn't inspire hawks

• For risk trends, we are still seeing an uneven performance between FX carry, equities and commodities

• Event risk will continue at a brisk pace ahead with the RBA decision taking center stage

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There were two particular pieces of event risk that could have jump started a Dollar break and momentum. The first of those two - Monday's PCE inflation figures - fell short. The data remains unfavorably neutral such that we are lacking for a clear fundamental cue to either bid the currency further or see it reverse. Our next major opportunity to reinvigorate Greenback volatility doesn't come until the end of the week with the monthly NFP labor data. In the meantime, we are left with tempting technicals and reticence to make anything of it. In the meantime, there are other fundamental sparks to keep tabs on. Us equities have slipped led by a clear head-and-shoulders pattern from the Dow Jones Industrial Average, but not all risk measures are reflecting the same picture. There are major Pound and Euro milestones ahead, but the upcoming session will be anchored by the RBA rate decision for an Aussie Dollar that is drifting lower. We look at today's market movers and their themes in today's trading video.

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