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FOMC Decision Holds Reins on Dollar and SPX, Pound Mixed after GDP

FOMC Decision Holds Reins on Dollar and SPX, Pound Mixed after GDP

2015-07-29 01:52:00
John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist
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Talking Points:

• One of this week's top scheduled event risks is due in the upcoming session: the FOMC rate decision

• While the Dollar draws the most direct lines to the policy update, risk trends are bigger picture concern

• The Pound drew limited motivation from UK GDP but the NZD surged after RBNZ 'seemingly' dovish remarks

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Market activity this past session carried the distinct sense of the deep breath before a big exhale. On the docket moving forward is the FOMC rate decision. No change is expected from the world's largest central bank, but that isn't where the market will be looking. A high fluency in Fed-speak makes this market far more sensitive to change in tone which can signal whether or not the first hike is due at a subsequent meeting or perhaps not in 2016 at all - and there is a lot riding on this question. As we await the central bank's call on policy and its global impact, a few other fundamental developments have drawn interest. The Pound's volatility potential was sapped by an 'in-line' UK GDP outcome. Yet, unburdened by anticipation, developments for pairs like GBPNZD and EURGBP may come more readily. Meanwhile, RBNZ Governor Wheeler inadvertently bolstered the Kiwi with what he may have thought were dovish remarks but not interpreted as such. We look at what's moving in markets now and what will stir it up in the next 24 hours in today's Trading Video.

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