Risk Run Hits a Wall While Pound and Kiwi Show Surprise Rate Response
• When S&P500 futures and CFDs called an end to an 8-day rally it capped the fourth longest rally in 6 years
• A rally from the New Zealand Dollar after an RBNZ rate cut shows how dovish expectations were
• BoE minutes showed a unanimous vote to hold rates, but the next gathering is expecting dissenters
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Burgeoning trends are losing momentum while primed breakouts are faltering without distinct event risk to catalyze their potential energy. For the S&P 500, an eight-day run hit its wall Tuesday to cap one of the longest runs since the recovery began following the Great Financial Crisis. The retreat so far looks to be a moderation rather than a true reversal. For the Dollar, a tense technical wedge is struggling to spark the necessary conviction for a breakout. Meanwhile, the data that is crossing the wires isn't offering the definitive sentiment shift that can carry a market move. Dovish anticipation was so significant that it disarmed the RBNZ's rate cut and actually saw the New Zealand Dollar higher. For the British Pound, a unanimous vote to keep rates unchanged was offset somewhat by evidence that a few members are ready to vote for a hike perhaps at the upcoming meeting. Is there enough in the market to forge one of the significant moves the market seems to be setting up for, or will conviction continue to falter. We discuss this in today's Trading Video.
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