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Trading Video: Greece Panic Eases as IMF Payment in Arrears, Risk Still Stalking

Trading Video: Greece Panic Eases as IMF Payment in Arrears, Risk Still Stalking

2015-07-01 01:24:00
John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist
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Talking Points:

• The panic surrounding Greece and reflected in the Euro's massive gap Monday has eased

• At the turn of the clocks, Greece is in a technical default with the IMF and its bailout has expired

• Sentiment behind Greece may have settled but risk trends are still dangerously positioned

Find out what scheduled event risk can threaten your trades or trigger volatility with the DailyFX Economic Calendar.

The sheer panic surrounding Greece that drove the Euro on a massive bearish gap Monday morning has settled as the week progresses. That stability seems more ironic considering the country has entered technical default on a payment due the IMF (though with a grace period and the understanding that this is a bilateral loan) and its frequently tenuous rescue program expired as we rolled into Wednesday. Despite these issues, there is still room to negotiate and maneuver, which prevents a black-and-white outcome for the troubled country - a variability of scenarios that makes it difficult to speculate with true conviction one way or the other. In the meantime, risk trends may not need Greece as a definitive catalyst to define its bearings. The S&P 500 still looms precariously over its 200-day moving average ready to drag down global equities and Yen-based carry trades with it. On the docket, event risk will bring us back to a theme that has been waylaid by headlines: divergent monetary policy trends. We look at where the focus and volatility is shifting in today's Trading Video.

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