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Video: Dollar Tumble Thrown Into Doubt, A Second Wave Of Risk Ahead

Video: Dollar Tumble Thrown Into Doubt, A Second Wave Of Risk Ahead

2015-04-30 00:07:00
John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist
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Talking Points:

• The Dollar's tumble was initially leveraged this past session with a significant miss in 1Q GDP

• Yet, instead of the Fed using the opportunity of weak data to soften their rate stance, they held firm

• Ahead, the docket is thick with another round of important event risk

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The USDollar is now down for six consecutive trading days. That matches the longest series of declines for the benchmark currency since January 2011 and looks like a convincing confirmation of a lasting reversal. Yet, when we look more closely at the market's development this past session as well as the fundamentals behind this turn, follow through look far less certain. A big-picture, favorable trend is supported by a Fed board that seems unphased by a temporary set back in economic data. That can make trading the Dollar a difficult proposition. Meanwhile, the RBNZ offered up a more dovish view than the market was ready for and Greece's troubles continue unresolved (which makes the Euro's rebound all the more unusual). Risk trends are starting to crumble if European and Asian shares are any indication, and the docket is once again overloaded for scheduled event risk over the next 24 hours. We discuss developments and trends in today's Trading Video.

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