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Risk Warped by Holiday, Dollar Ready for NFPs, Greece Fear Grows

Risk Warped by Holiday, Dollar Ready for NFPs, Greece Fear Grows

2015-04-03 00:54:00
John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist
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Talking Points:

• With many liquidity centers closed for the Good Friday holiday, risk trends will struggle for traction

• Monetary policy is still a key FX drive, which keeps the Dollar exposed to Friday's March NFPs

• The Euro's troubles continue as Greece's financial situation devolves into speculation and fear

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We are facing a dichotomy: top tier event risk in NFPs versus a speculative dampener in the form of a Friday holiday for much of the world. This combination can warp volatility, but the ultimate influence the data has over the dominant trends is likely to remain the same. With the S&P 500 working its way into a breakout situation, we have to be skeptical of such benchmarks' ability to contribute to a strong risk run before the weekend. That said, the dampener can project different opportunities for 'risk sensitive' currency pairs. For the Dollar, however, monetary speculation doesn't need risk contributions to take off. With expectations for reasonable range, AUDUSD and GBPUSD are opposing opportunities. And, outside of the US event risk, concern over Greece's financial health should keep Euro traders and international investors alike on their toes. We discuss what markets can move into the end of the week and trends to watch for next week in today's Trading Video.

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