Talking Points:
• The second worst NFPs surprise since the Great Financial Crisis tripped the Dollar into the week's close
• Once again, the USDollar is leaning heavily on its key technical channel support heading into a new week
• Risk trends are also on fragile ground with the S&P 500 worked into a 'must-break' scenario
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Once again, we close a week out to anxiety. Both the S&P 500 and USDollar are positioned such that they will have to decide whether to rouse enough strength to recover from long-term technical floors or finally capitulate to trend exhaustion. This past week's NFPs has struck the right tone to put both equities and currency on unsteady footing. A sharply weaker payroll figure undermines rate speculation directly after the market has intensified its focus on monetary policy. At the same time, the hope of a deferred rate hike may not be enough to cheer investors in 'risk assets' that are more concerned about the fundamental backdrop to the S&P 500's long-term charge. Will one or both of these themes - monetary policy and risk trends - build momentum in the week ahead? Meanwhile, beware volatility from high profile event risk such as Greece's troubled negotiations and the RBA rate decision. We cover these fundamental threats/opportunities and measure them against the market in this weekend Trading Video.
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