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NFPs Solidify Fed Shift, Spur SPX Drop on Risk Trends

NFPs Solidify Fed Shift, Spur SPX Drop on Risk Trends

2015-03-07 00:06:00
John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist
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Talking Points:

• February NFPs beat expectations adding to speculation of a 'mid-2015' Fed hike and

• The USDollar surged to fresh, multi-year highs, but the surprise was arguably the S&P 500's drop

• Driven by complacency and extremely low yields, investors may be near the tipping point for risk exposure

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The high probability that the Fed starts to normalize accommodative monetary policy in the near future is well-known by the speculative ranks. What's more, it is unlikely that market participants - professional and novice alike - are unaware of the consequences to risk positioning for such a systemic shift (namely deleveraging and flight to safety). Yet, despite this knowledge, traders have not de-escalated their exposure. That is likely a side effect of thin returns and long-standing complacency which necessitates brinkmanship in positioning. The USDollar's surge to multi-year highs and tumble from the S&P 500 in response to this past week's NFPs may signal that we are close to the tipping point where preparation for risk aversion turns into action. We weigh how this important theme will play out and highlight some opportunities should it intensify or stall again in this weekend's Trading Video.

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