Talking Points:
• Fed Chair Yellen's testimony moved the market closer to the reality of inevitable rate hikes
• Despite the growing 'mid-2015 rate hike' mantra in the market, the Dollar has failed to break or progress
• If monetary policy moderates as a driver for the FX market, the focus may return to risk trends and SPX
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Despite a round of news that reinforced a 'mid-2015' Fed hike forecast, reminded us of impending ECB QE and kept the Greece negotiations off-balance; EURUSD refused to break a range that is little more than 100 points wide. Top news through the past session was Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen's testimony before the Senate Banking Committee. In her remarks, carefully chosen language seems to reinforce a scenario where the Fed is preparing the market for a rate hike around the middle of the year. Yet, that scenario seems to be well priced - or at least skepticism to anything but a direct warning is dug in - as the USDollar failed to break its month-long congestion. Cues for a policy-led break are dispersed widely over the coming weeks, so this market dynamic may not prove the spark for our next drive. In the meantime, if risk trends pick up the baton; a moderation move by the S&P 500 can spur a range of opportunities. We look at the Dollar and broader market in today's Trading Video.
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