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Will US GDP Stir Dollar or Risk More - USDJPY May Break Either Way

Will US GDP Stir Dollar or Risk More - USDJPY May Break Either Way

2015-01-30 02:25:00
John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist

Talking Points:

• Both the USDollar and S&P 500 are holding course on their impressive bull runs

• Friday's 4Q US GDP release has the necessary clout to tip risk trends and/or US growth forecasts

• In the event sentiment and Fed hike forecasts sink, there may be no more at-risk pair than USDJPY

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Both speculative appetite - at least in US equities - and Dollar fortitude have held through the FOMC's monetary policy meeting this week. Will this positive correlation and unlikely fundamental balance hold through another fundamental trial? The US 4Q GDP reading is due Friday, and the data will weigh heavily on two themes the global markets are focused on: the backdrop the world's largest economy can provide global investor confidence and the hawkish contrast it can support for the Fed. While the Dollar is a safe haven under unfavorable conditions, it may act as a carry currency through an initial slip in speculative appetite before finding its liquidity appeal. Risk trends - particularly negative - are better served through Yen crosses. In particular, USDJPY seems an imminent breakout risk risk but its fundamental allegiances could make for a complicated setup. We discuss trading conditions amid event risk in today's Trading Video.

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