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Video: EURUSD, EURJPY, and S&P 500 As Risk Aversion Bends and Breaks

Video: EURUSD, EURJPY, and S&P 500 As Risk Aversion Bends and Breaks

2015-01-07 02:44:00
John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist
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Talking Points:

• By some accounts the S&P 500 is looking at the worst open in 2015 since 2008 or 2000 - by others, 1991

• The heavy correction in typical 'risk' assets is clear, but it is early to call a full-scale deleverage

• I am looking for entry on EURUSD, EURJPY and GBPJPY; while the Pound looks stretched on its rate view

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Long-term bulls are starting to panic. The S&P 500 - stimulus ambassador and leverage concentrate - is down five consecutive days through the open of 2015 and down 2.7 percent in the first three full trading days. At best, that draws comparisons to the ill-fated open to 2000 and 2008. At worst, it can be seen as the worst start since 1991. An open like this doesn't go unnoticed by bulls or bears. However, it doesn't necessarily signal the definitive and long-awaited shift to deleverage excessive exposure. Moderation and rebound is likely. Probability solidifies in how far any corrections prove. As we watch risk, I'm looking for entry on EURJPY, GBPJPY and other pairs sensitive to the ebb and flow of confidence. In the meantime, we can't lose sight of other themes like monetary policy which holds particular interest for the Euro, Dollar and Pound. We take a run down of an increasingly active market in today's Trading Video.

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