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Trading Video: The Next Big Euro Bear Leg

Trading Video: The Next Big Euro Bear Leg

2014-11-21 03:25:00
John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist
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Talking Points:

• An uptick in US inflation does little to push Fed rate hikes, weak PMIs to move ECB to QE

• The medium-term view for EURUSD remains bearish, but other Euro pairs may offer more timely opportunity

• Support for the SNB Gold Referendum is shifting and risk trends are still a looming risk

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Despite a clear technical setup and capable event risk EURUSD found itself unable to catalyze its next major drive. Had the Eurozone PMIs and US consumer inflation report printed against the prevailing trends of the ECB's march towards QE and the Fed's path towards normalization, the impact to the pair may have been more dramatic. Instead, we are seeing how far the market is pricing primary fundamental trends behind the world's two most liquid reserve currencies. The path the Euro is on looks to eventually escalate this pair and other crosses' tumble, but the big move will require much greater motivation. Meanwhile, more proximate opportunities may be presenting themselves. A rebalancing for EURGBP can play to the dominant trends and regain lost ground rather than forge a new leg. Elsewhere, EURCHF's 1.2000 floor looks to be firming again as the Gold Referendum bias shifts. We discuss these and more pair in today's Trading Video.

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