Video: ECB Decision Unsettles EURUSD Trend, Will NFPs Feed or Turn It?
• After a 1,400-pip EURUSD drop, the market was looking for the ECB to offer a sizable stimulus program
• The result of the central bank's asset purchase plan was obscure to size, target and pace
• This pair faces a second fundamental catalyst in the September US NFPs - tapping a key dollar theme
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Five months and 1,400 pips, EURUSD has experienced an incredible bear trend. Yet, market participants are increasingly asking 'how far is too far' when it comes to key fundamental motivations like risk appetite trends, interest rate expectations and complacency? The ECB rate decision this past session fell far short of what the market has priced in for the Euro and European capital markets. A vague understanding of scope and pace for the asset purchase program falls far short of the comparisons made to the Fed's and Bank of Japan's moves before it. That presents a tangible concern for EURUSD bears as well as those dependent on risk appetite trends and complacency. Ahead, US NFPs will look to further shape rate expectations for the dollar and salvage risk appetite for a weakened S&P 500. We look at both FX and capital benchmarks through this heavy docket in today's Trading Video.
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