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The Trouble With EURUSD Follow Through or GBPUSD Reversal

The Trouble With EURUSD Follow Through or GBPUSD Reversal

2014-09-11 01:25:00
John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist
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Talking Points:

• Top event risk in BoE testimony and an RBNZ rate decision generated clear volatility for GBP and NZD

• Event risk versus theme means the US Dollar remains the most motivated currency

• Whether Dollar, Pound, Euro or other major; key event risk ahead is going to further warp volatility

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Armed with high-level event risk this past session, GBPUSD attempted to reverse its bear trend while NZDUSD looked to extend its 600-point tumble. Yet, after an initial bout of volatility; neither pair made progress comparable to the trend development of the past two weeks. To some extent, the BoE Testimony, new Scottish Referendum poll numbers and RBNZ rate decision don't materially alter the dominant fundamental themes. Yet, a moderation in trend may prove more systemic than just the quality of upcoming event risk. With the surge in volatility, the market is projecting heavy swings in near future through major event risk like the Fed rate decision, UK CPI, Scotland vote, ECB TLTRO allotment and other key milestones. How will market participants position in the lead up to daunting wave? We discuss that in today's Trading Video.

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