Talking Points:

• Equities and yen crosses posted a bullish break to start the quarter, but is this really a sentiment move?

• The same constraints to risk seekers remain - excessive leverage, few bargains and bareen participation

• If risk continues, Aussie and Kiwi dollars are best poised; while risk aversion exposes the yen crosses

Download the Consecutive Bar Indicator used in today's video for free and use it to measure the historical significance and over-extended level of the markets.

The S&P 500 finally pushed through resistance on a six-week congestion pattern, and the yen crosses jumped on board. The question - as it always is though - is whether this thrust is the impetus for a new trend or a temporary spike. With the turn of the quarter, investors may be looking to reposition or roll risk exposure. Then again, a technical impetus may be all the market needs to work through short-term speculative anxiety and push another leg of a long-term trend. Identifying opportunities for either outcome on risk is worth our time, so in today's Trading Video we look at candidates for 'risk on' (AUDUSD, NZDUSD) and 'risk off' (CADJPY and AUDJPY) while also accounting other big themes and upcoming event risk.

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