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Forex: Volatility Ahead with Record SPX, NFPs, ECB, Ukraine and More

Forex: Volatility Ahead with Record SPX, NFPs, ECB, Ukraine and More

2014-03-01 02:01:00
John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist
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Talking Points:

• Another S&P 500 push to record highs has stoked talk of 'risk on', but corroboration is light

• Risk trends will be an immediate concern next week fresh equity highs and Ukraine concerns

• Yet, data may prove the more substantial driver for pairs like EURUSD (ECB, NFPs) and AUDUSD (RBA)

Market conditions change, and our strategy should reflect those changes. We have coded the DailyFX-Plus strategies for Breakout, Range and Momentum to adapt to these market shifts.

Headlines were quick to jump on the record high close for the S&P 500 to end the week and February, but the optimism still comes off as shallow. Yen crosses, global equities and other 'risk-sensitive' markets have long fallen behind. That leaves little hope in generating the level of influence necessary to take over trend duties to the more resilient benchmarks such as EURUSD. The winds of risk will certainly be a key concern in the week ahead, but the underlying sentiment will be more important than its typical indicators. Meanwhile, in our eternal wait for a decisive 'risk' drive, there will be plenty of event risk to drive the FX market. Of particular interest this week are the NFPs and Fed confirmation hearings (USD), the ECB rate decision (EUR) and the RBA rate decision (AUD). We talk about what will move the market's next week in the weekend Trading Video.

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