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Forex: Equities Leaning 'Risk On', Yen Crossess 'Risk Off'

Forex: Equities Leaning 'Risk On', Yen Crossess 'Risk Off'

John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist

Talking Points:

• The S&P 500 is hugging record high resistance at the same time the yen crosses threaten bearish breaks

• Risk trends are currently not engaged, but a short-term break can disrupt sentiment trends

• The USD and Australian dollar are among the best currencies to trade on or outside of 'risk'

Market conditions change, and our strategy should reflect those changes. We have coded the DailyFX-Plus strategies for Breakout, Range and Momentum to adapt to these market shifts.

The S&P 500 and yen crosses are coiled like springs. Yet, the equity benchmark is currently threatening a break higher while the carry pairs are still leaning lower. What does this say of risk? Likely that it isn't an active driver just yet. We can test this by accounting for how different markets and asset classes are moving relative to general speculative trends. A mixed bag across equities, FX, Emerging Markets and other market types tells us that 'risk' is not actively pushing the tide one way or the other. That doesn't mean, however, that we aren't exposed to short-term breakouts or that a sharp move from one market can't spill over to another. Yet, it does suggest that individual moves will quickly dry up without a stronger fundamental driver behind it. So what should be look for? What type of trades stand a better chance should risk come rushing on or remain off the books? We cover this and more in today's Trading Video.

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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