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Forex: Volatility Retreat Cools Dollar Run, Raises Risk of S&P 500 Breakout

Forex: Volatility Retreat Cools Dollar Run, Raises Risk of S&P 500 Breakout

2014-02-21 01:53:00
John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist

Talking Points:

• The S&P 500 and yen cross reversal stalled before gaining traction as volatility measures stalled

EURUSD and GBPUSD present great trade opportunities, but entry this week is a low probability

Canadian dollar pairs and a possible risk-positive development offer the most pressing volatility risks Market conditions change, and our strategy should reflect those changes.

We have coded the DailyFX-Plus strategies for Breakout, Range and Momentum to adapt to these market shifts.

The rebound in risk and volatility that had started the turn in the S&P 500 and yen crosses as well as fed the dollar's recovery stalled this past session. A speculative unwind that evolves into full-blown deleveraging is our best hope for a market-wide move. Yet, igniting that particular stick of dynamite is proving exceptionally difficult. In the final 24 hours of trade this week, the catalysts for high-level fundamental drivers are few. A short-term speculative break and Canadian dollar stir through economic data are short-term opportunities. Meanwhile, the high profile and high potential in EURUSD, GBPUSD and other benchmarks may have to wait until next week to unfold. We discuss the opportunities to close the week and what lies further ahead in today's Trading Video.

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.