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Forex: Will the S&P 500 Break 1775 to Follow EURUSD, Emerging Markets Lower?

Forex: Will the S&P 500 Break 1775 to Follow EURUSD, Emerging Markets Lower?

John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist

Talking Points:

• With equity indexes holding to critical support and volatility holding up, panic is not far away

• Keeping track of the amplitude in risk trends via yen crosses and Emerging Markets prepares traders

• And, in the absence of explosive risk trends, monetary policy forecasts will move USD, EUR, GBP and AUD

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This past week closed to an uneasy congestion. While the S&P 500 held above a multi-year bullish trendline, the normal influx of opportunistic speculative buyers never materailized. We see further signs of measured and deliberate risk aversion in volatility measures, Emerging Markets and the yen crosses. A more immense and destructive financial crisis may very well be smuldering beneath the market's more tumultuous surface, so favoring trade setups that stand to benefit panicked capital flows is important. Yet, full scale 'risk trades'may not provide the best immediate opportunity. Relative monetary policy is a more proactive theme, and key event risk this week - NFPs along with ECB, BoE and RBA rate decision - stands to generate sizable movement in the FX market. We look at the big picture fundamental themes, upcoming event risk and key technical setups in the weekend Forex Trading Video.

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