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Forex: Gauging Risk Trends for Dollar, Stocks, Yen Crosses

Forex: Gauging Risk Trends for Dollar, Stocks, Yen Crosses

2014-01-24 02:36:00
John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist
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Talking Points:

• While equities and Emerging Markets tumbled this past session, the dollar and euro bucked trend

• This initial jolt of risk aversion has not yet gone 'mainstream', but it can with conviction

EURUSD and AUDUSD have unique positions whether the outlook is for 'risk off' or rebound

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We have hit a new milestone for volatility in 2014. Overdue technical breaks in US equities, sharp reversals from the yen crosses and crisis headlines out of the emerging market have stoked fear. Yet, if we are witnessing the long-awaited return of market-wide risk aversion, then why did the liquidity-primed dollar drop while the speculative-favorite euro rally? A minor fire has broken out in the global financial system, and the most sensitive and leveraged assets (S&P 500, Yen crosses) have moved preemptively. Yet, the situation is not yet deemed contageous, meaning full blown trends have yet to develop and a panicked liquidity grab has yet to take place. We could still see this escalation in the final 24 hours of this week, but next week's loaded docket may break that focus up and even instigate the situation itself. We discuss this past session's incredible moves and their trading implicaitons in today's Trading Video.

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