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Forex: Dollar Slips After Weak NFPs, Market Complacency Extreme

Forex: Dollar Slips After Weak NFPs, Market Complacency Extreme

2014-01-11 03:59:00
John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist
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Talking Points:

• US December payrolls posted the biggest 'miss' since November 2008, but Taper implications were mixed

• In the wake of the employment report, volatility levels dropped to further extreme lows

• A rebound in activity threatens to be more disruptive and trade plans should reflect the risk

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News of the biggest NFPs miss since November 2008 - during the height of the financial crisis - crowded financial headlines into the weekend. Yet, the severity of this data release leverage a limited response from both the US dollar and S&P 500. The consensus for a steady Taper from the Fed has altered the dynamics for the markets. Despite the changing implications for growth and monetary policy moving forward though, one aspect of the market is still following the same path: risk trends. Volatility readings (considered both measures of activity and 'fear') dropped further for all asset classes. The level of inactivity and complacency have slid to new extremes. This presents a tangible risk going forward - any correction in speculative positioning increasingly risks a disorderly unwinding. We discuss volatility levels and the implications for our trading going forward in the Weekend Trading Video.

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